River info. on the floods in Memphis and Tunica.
Posted: May 16, 2011
Aerial Photos taken Tuesday, May 10th:
Updated May 10th at 7:50 a.m.
Hi Everyone,
* We have been in contact with the Gaming Commission this morning about reopening procedures. In essence, the GC is focused on safety and generally it has indicated that casinos will be permitted to reopen when they can do so safely. This is expected to be on an individual basis. We have been cooperating with the GC as they develop of list of prerequisites for reopening. We hope to have more specific guidance for you very soon on these issues. We will let you you know ASAP.
* I was in Lula, Tunica, & Robinsonville yesterday. I spoke to many of you and even managed to get behind the levee to take a look at some properties. First, let me congratulate each of you for doing thus far what has stymied us Delta folk for generations: holding back the river. Your preparations and ability to martial the requisite resources are truly impressive. Thusly, I am only aware of a few relatively minor instances of water breaching casino defenses and in each instance repairs were made quickly preventing serious damage.
* I am no expert, but I have lived and tromped around here my entire life. Here are a few of my non-expert observations which–in addition to the water generally–struck me as out of the ordinary:
(1) The Highway 1 bridge in Lula is several miles from the main levee. Water is on the levee. To my knowledge, that is a first in my lifetime.
(2) Near Lula at Moon Lake (in Coahoma County just shy of the Tunica line) water appeared to be seeping under/through the levee. I saw what appeared to be similar things in Tunica. The Corps and the Levee Board are maintaining the levees are performing as planned. Let’s hope this is true. In 1922 during a slow rising, then-record crest produced two, one inch square sand boils that within five minutes grew into a 1,500 foot crevasse in a saturated levee and poured a tsunami of water upon Poydras in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. I have, however, heard nothing of that sort around here.
(3) There were many, large dirt trucks running rapidly on the levee between Casino Strip and Casino Center. I have seen no official reports of boils or breaches there, but I did hear Mr. Leatherman was mounting some enormous dirt moving campaign somehow related to his property and/or private levees.
* While present congratulations are in order do not become complacent. The danger is not over. The river has a way of exploiting latent flaws and overpowering defenses. In his book Rising Tide, John Barry observed:
“Water runs to the sea. If an obstacle–such as a dam or a levee [or sand bags, or rip rap or bladders]–prevents water from flowing where gravity would send it, then the water’s mass and potential energy builds. The greater the force applied in an effort to block from its natural flow, the greater will grow the mass of water so blocked and the greater will become the potential power of its energy.” So long as the flood water remains, so goes the fight against it.
* On a lighter note, no doubt many on your teams are tired and weary. My friends at the Fillin’ Station Grill at I-55 and Church Road in Southaven are throwing the “Sandbag Bash” this Thursday night starting at 8:00 p.m. This is event is primarily geared towards casino workers. Anyone with a casino badge or id can get it free. If you have people with you who are visiting from Biloxi, New Jersey, Las Vegas, Pennsylvania or elsewhere who do not have such badges, simply let the people at the door know they are attending at my invitation. I shall take care of their cover charge. A portion of the proceeds collected by the Fillin’ Station are going to the Red Cross.
* I will be flying over Tunica this morning and hope to get some good aerial photos of each of your properties. I’ll forward them along to you.
To paraphrase a 1922 Greenville levee board engineer and with the crest soon to be upon you, you are no longer facing a theory, but a condition. Good luck folks.
Scott
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Updated Monday, May 9th, 7:45 a.m.
Hi Everyone,
* At 5:00 a.m. the Memphis gauge read 47.7 feet. The Corp did re-confirm the Memphis gauge was malfunctioning the last two days. You can see the sporadic readings here: http://bit.ly/kZs8If. The present reading looks to be in line with other contemporary reports.
* At 3:00 p.m. yesterday, the Tunica River Park gauge read 58.19 feet. There is no explanation as to why the reading is so old.
* You can view yesterday’s press conference by the Corps in Memphis at http://bit.ly/muQRja and part II here http://bit.ly/j8At2c.
* Last night WREG reported the Levee Board identified some seepage through the levee in Tunica County, but did not specifically say where. Reinforcements were made to the levee. http://bit.ly/mgfRRy
* I’ve got a hearing in Clarksdale this morning about a recent casino trial. I intend to ride by Casino Center and Casino Strip on the way back. I’ll be in my silver car. If you see me wave me down.
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Updated Thursday, May 5th, 9:12 a.m.
Hi Everyone,Correction: The Corps just updated its Facebook page. The correct reading at Memphis is 47.33 feet.
Thursday, May 5th, 8:45 a.m.
Hi Everyone,
I’m trying to consolidate info into fewer emails. Here are some bullets:
* The river gauge at Memphis at 9:00 this morning was at 43.47, nearly 10 feet above flood stage.
* The river gauge at Tunica River Park this morning was 54.27.
* Links to the river gauges should shortly be active in the News section of our blog at http://www.mississippigaminglaw.com/
* Around noon, the Corps still plans to breach the levee at New Madrid to redirect the Cairo outflow back into the river. The net result is that the Cairo outlet is not expected to significantly reduce levels at Memphis/Tunica. A picture of the Cairo breach I have not seen reported anywhere is at the bottom. The Corps should have flyover photos of the Cairo outlet up this morning.
* Some casinos in Tunica have had their email service disrupted. If you need to contact your colleagues at neighboring properties, text messages may be better temporarily.
* This is outside my area, but I have it on good authority: If it follows the same method it did post-Katrina, the MDES will award unemployment benefits to your employees even if you are still paying employees. If you need advice on this issue, let me know and I will connect you with our Labor & Employment lawyers.
* Re business interruption coverage: You may find your casino’s business interruption coverage is spread across several policies, each policy with different limits and different triggers. Hypothetically, and depending upon the specific language of your policy(s), it is possible that your mitigation efforts may adversely affect your position under another policy. For instance, you may have a small business interruption coverage limit available resulting from government shut downs, but you might also have a large business interruption limit available resulting from property damage. Thus, hypothetically, your efforts to prevent property damage may succeed in protecting your property, but may defeat your claim on the larger business interruption coverage. Again, however, your situation is policy and fact specific.
* I’ve never found a use for Twitter until now. It is a excellent source of real-time updates re the flood. You can now follow me on Twitter @MS_CasinoLaw (MississippiCasinoLaw)
Hi Everyone–Here is this morning’s update:
* Yesterday, the Corps changed the crest date at Memphis to 5/11/11. The projected level remains 48.0. The record is 48.7 (1937).
* The Corps is planning to blow another outlet (outflow crevasse) in the levee at the Bird’s Point New Madrid floodway. No reports yet as to when. As expected, however, the outlets yesterday did little if anything to stem the rise at Memphis.
UPDATE: 5/4/11- 11:38 a.m. Hey–I was just reviewing some new numbers for Memphis when the alarming numbers for the other river markets caught my eye. We should pass this info along to those clients/potential clients. http://www.mvk.usace.army.mil/riverstage/bullet.txt
@ Greenville: Crest 64.5 feet on 5/17. The record is 58.2 in 1973.
@ Vicksburg: Crest 57.5 feet on 5/20. The record is 56 in 1927.
@ Natchez: Crest 65 feet on 5/22. The record is 58 in 1937.
This is not good folks.
Good Luck,
Scott
* Yesterday, it was widely reported that casino shutdowns may last for weeks. The three-year average gross gaming revenue from Tunica’s nine casinos during May is about $87 million, meaning closing for the month would lead to a combined $10.62 million loss in local ($3.54 million) and state ($7.08 million) gaming tax revenue. Read more: Tunica completes casino closures, could cost $10.6M in tax revenue | Memphis Business Journal
Memphis gauge at 8:00am = 44.28 ft.
Tunica gauge at 7:00am = 55.1 ft
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Updated Wednesday, May 4th, 10:22 a.m.
By: Scott Burnham Hollis, Esq.
* WMC/Chnl 5 reported yesterday that homes are now flooded at the Tunica Cutoff. If you don’t know, that is a crescent cutoff lake (the old river channel) near Tunica proper.
* Email. Some casinos are still experiencing interruptions in their email service. You may need to try the cell phones of your colleagues at other properties.
* Twitter. If you are like me, you have eschewed Twitter to the realm of teenagers and tech geeks. I know realize that is a mistake. Since the weekend, I have found it is an excellent source of info in near real time. In circumstances like these where timely info is valuable, Twitter is a great way to gather that info. For instance, by creating a free Twitter account and “following” likely info sources like The Corps, MEMA, etc. you can receive the equivalent of a custom-made news crawler on your iPhone, Blackberry, Android or other smartphone. I’ve been acting as a gaming/flood-related gatekeeper of sorts tweeting and retweeting all things related to the casinos, Tunica and the flood. You can follow me on Twitter @MS_CasinoLaw
* Free Fly Overs. I’ve charted a small plane to fly over the casinos on next Tuesday, May 10th. Due to FAA regs the flights must depart/return to Olive Branch. If you want to go, let me know so we can nail down flight schedules. There is no cost to you.
I’m traveling today so these readings and this email are a bit earlier than usual.
The Memphis gauge at 4:00 a.m. this morning read 44.91 ft. It will likely be 45+ when you get this.
The Tunica River Park gauge at 3:00 a.m. was 55.73 ft.
* The Corps released a new 28 day projection yesterday afternoon. There was some good news in it. While the crest is still projected to be 48 feet and the crest day was moved from 5/10 to 5/11, the water is predicted to recede rapidly. The Corps predicts a 27.9 foot drop by the end of May to 20.1 feet on the Memphis gauge June 1. I heard a rumor that 39 feet was the return threshold set by some authority. According to the projections, the Memphis gauge should read below 39 feet on May 23. Here is a link to the entire forecast: http://1.usa.gov/jSf0VI
* There was some undefined logistical problem at the Bird’s Point New Madrid (BPNM) floodway yesterday that prevented the third breach (outflow). It has been rescheduled for today at 1:00. There will be a presser thereafter in which the commander of the Memphis District will speak. We may learn some good stuff from his comments about what to expect in Tunica/Memphis. If you are on Facebook, you should “like” the BPNM Floodway Joint Information Center. It is a good source. They update it frequently and more so than their Twitter.
* Things in Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez look ominous and do not bode well for casinos in those markets. The water there is projected to significantly exceed record levels and breach cofferdams enclosing casino barges. Worse still, some of the facilities there are permanently moored and therefore do not float, at least in the free sense. They are expecting lots of water in those facilities. Shut downs are imminent. Here are some of the frightening numbers:
Greenville: Crest is 64.5 feet on 5/17/11. The record is 58.2 feet in 1973.
Vicksburg: Crest is 57.5 on 5/20/11. The record is 56 feet in 1927.
Natchez: Crest is 64 feet on 5/22/11. The record is 58 feet in 1937.
* I still have two dry warehouse facilities that are immediately available for your storage needs. One is 30K sq. ft. with 2 loading docks and racking on the inside. It is a former beer distributorship. The other is brand new, never occupied. I’m not sure about the sq. ft., but is is large and various bays can be sublet. I’ll guess it is also at least 30K sq. ft. on the whole. It has several tall roll-up doors, a large parking lot, and about 1K sq. ft. office space with a bathroom. Both warehouses are in Hernando, close to I-55.
* Temporary office space is hard to find around here especially of any size. Yesterday, while looking for one client’s large needs, I ran across a few smaller places that could house a handful of executives. These were all in DeSoto County. If you are looking let me know.
* I still have a few flight spots left for the flyovers on Tuesday 5/11. I’m paying for the flights so, all you have to do is ride. Let me know if you are interested in going. Aerial photographs may be useful in any sort of insurance claims you might have.
* I’ll be out of the office today and tomorrow, but you can reach me on my cell 901-827-4045 or by email. I’ll also be updating the Twitter feed @MS_CasinoLaw.
As always, good luck folks.
Scott
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Updated Tuesday, May 3th, 9:45 a.m.
By: Scott Burnham Hollis, Esq.
Hi Everyone,
* The Memphis gauge read 46.83 feet at 8:00 a.m.. That’s obviously beyond the original forecast of 45 feet when many of you began your protective preparations. The projected crest is still 48 feet on May 11.
* The Tunica River Park gauge read 57.44 feet at 7:00 a.m.
* I have started to hear diverging reports about when the waters in Tunica will recede. Clearly, the projections indicate a quick drop after May 11 through the end of May. This drop, however, is at the gauge in the channel. I suppose it is possible that the boggy backwater areas could hold flood water for some time. Having been reared in the Delta, I can assure you of one thing: As the weather warms and the water stagnates, you can expect a bumper crop of mosquitoes and snakes. I was part of an inspection at the old Isle in Tunica a few years ago after it had been closed. Snakes were plentiful throughout the lower level, inside and out. You should also be on the lookout for mold. Even with the HVAC systems running, the damp Delta air is prone to produce mold in an unoccupied building.
* There was not much news from the Corps yesterday, but it was moving its nerve center from Missouri to Memphis. The Corps does have a new Facebook page titled “Floodfight 2011 – Operation Watershed”. It appears to be mostly pictures thus far.
* Tropicana has closed Lighthouse Point and Jubilee casinos, both in Greenville. I heard that Greenville casinos were floating so high they were looming precariously over the downtown levee in Greenville.
* Isle of Capri Casinos is planning to close its casino in Natchez on Sunday and may also close Vicksburg. The Las Vegas review journal reported that Isle has already contacted their carrier regarding business interruption claims. I suspect many of you have done that as well. Here is a link to my blog article re such claims that was posted a week ago: http://msgaminglaw.com/2011-spring-flood/
* Ameristar in Vicksburg may close next week, well in advance of when the Mississippi River is expected to crest there. The company said Friday that steps had been undertaken by the Corps to protect the casino from flood damage. I’m not sure what those steps were.
* At 6:00 a.m. the Memphis gauge read 48.75 feet. If correct, that is a new record high. The previous record being 48.7 feet in 1937. (See more below re the Memphis gauge).
* At 5:00 a.m. the Tunica River Park gauge read 57.97 feet. Interestingly, that is slightly down from 58.4 at 4:00 a.m.
* While I was on the road yesterday, the Corps made a special report regarding the Memphis gauge. The gauge was malfunctioning resulting in incorrect readings. I believe I saw something later indicating it had been repaired. This morning, I can no longer find the official special report about the gauge malfunction nor can I find any other official reference to it. It all seems to have disappeared. One reference is here: http://memphisflood.com/. The National Weather Service makes no mention of a malfunction or the rumored alternate Beale Street gauge on its site. The same goes for the Corps. You can see the dramatic, reportedly erroneous increase to the present reading in the chart here: http://bit.ly/kZs8If. Other NWS pages also still show the new record level: http://1.usa.gov/jUyqk5. Of course, this makes one wonder if the previous readings and indeed the previous crest projections were accurate. FYI, via Twitter, the reported accurate reading at Memphis this morning is 47.52 feet. I have not seen that officially confirmed anywhere.
* There is also some confusion re the crest date. Yesterday the Commercial Appeal and the Daily News reported the date had been moved. Recall that it was originally 5/10 then 5/11 now it looks like it is back to 5/10. This NWS chart http://1.usa.gov/jUyqk5 as of 7:00 a.m. indicates the crest date is back to 5/10.
* I realize these numbers are somewhat abstract without context. For those of you familiar with scenic Riverside Drive in Memphis that runs along Tom Lee Park overlooking the river from mid-way up the bluff, here is a pic of the intersection of Riverside and Beale Street: http://bit.ly/mhbTcK.
* I will be flying over the casinos on Tuesday. Thereafter, I’ll send around some aerial photos. Perhaps they will be useful in your claims.
* At 6:00 a.m. the Memphis gauge read 47.76 feet. Unofficial reports yesterday suggested the crest had arrived, but official projections are still 48 feet tomorrow, just .7 feet below the 1937 record.
* Based on the readings, or lack thereof, The Tunica River Park gauge appears to be malfunctioning (unconfirmed). Its most recent reading was at 4:00 p.m. yesterday at 58.27 feet.